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Global climatic and environmental
crisis and its solution
Part one - the problem1
Summary
A combination of climatic and environmental disturbances have been
mutually reinforcing each other causing a deterioration of the world
ecology. Ongoing global warming, mass extinction of species and
overpopulation are key problems. We are
therefore happy to inform that a scientifically
confirmed method is now
being implemented that is able to rapidly create the cooperation necessary
for to turn the global development in a positive direction. First
published at Contents
Rapid global heating -
US
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"What
is really unnerving is that it may take only a slight deviation in boundary
conditions or a small random fluctuation somewhere in the system "to excite
large changes ... when the system is close to a threshold", says the
NAS committee. An abrupt change in climate, …could prove catastrophic for
ecosystems and species around the world… The committee lays out a
potentially nightmarish scenario in which random triggering events take the
climate across the threshold into a new regime, causing widespread havoc
and destruction. Source: "Goodbye Cruel
World."A Report by Top |
The
warning of NAS is based on the present rate of warming. As you will find
below, there are a number of factors that may act synergistically to increase
the rate and extent of warming importantly. This would further aggravate the
ecological consequences.
Considerable increase in
greenhouse gas emissions
The cause
of global warming is generally considered to be gases that prevent heat to
radiate out into space, so called greenhouse gasses. The most important
greenhouse gas, is carbon dioxide. The major source of carbon dioxide is
burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas, also called "hydrocarbon
fuels"). This "heat trapper" has increased considerably, see
diagram below.
Increase of the major
greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide
The diagram
covers a time period of 1200 years. It shows how carbon dioxide long was
constant, but has increased by about 30 percent since the beginning of the
industrial era in about 1750. Source
of diagram:
"How Do We Know that the Atmospheric Build-up of Greenhouse Gases Is
Due to Human Activity?". United Nations IPCC. http://gcrio.ciesin.org/ipcc/qa/05.html
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There are
two major systems that can trap and eliminate carbon in the atmosphere. The
largest one is phytoplankton in the oceans. The second largest is forests.
The very extensive deforestation is considered to have contributed
importantly to the increase of carbon dioxide (for more see e.g. http://oregonstate.edu/instruction/bi301/fortrends.htm).
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Most of
the world's net deforestation in the 1990s was tropical forest loss, which
averaged 12.6 million hectares a year (averaged over the first half of the
1990's). Despite public attention to the issue of tropical deforestation,
damage has continued unabated since the 1980's when the average rate of
loss was 12.8 mill hectares per year. During the first half of the 1990's,
4% of the world's tropical forests were lost. If losses continued at this
rate, tropical forests would be gone within a few decades. |
The most
important carbon trap, the oceanic phytoplankton is harmed by increased
Ultraviolet Radiation caused by the ongoing ozone loss in the stratosphere.
Ozone loss aggravated by
global warming
The Ozone problem will get aggravated due to global
warming, because, paradoxically, it leads to increased stratospheric cooling,
which increases ozone loss.
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"Scientists
used to believe that as chlorine levels decline in the upper atmosphere,
the ozone layer should slowly start to recover. However, greenhouse gas
emissions, which provide warming at the Earth's surface, lead to cooling in
the upper atmosphere. This cooling promotes formation of the kind of polar
stratospheric clouds that contribute to ozone loss." |
Ozone loss likely to
aggravate global warming
The
increased ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion has been shown to
damage the world's largest carbon dioxide reduction mechanism, the marine
phytoplankton system.
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"The
largest biological system on the planet is that of marine phytoplankton; it
produces more biomass-104 billion tons of carbon per year- than all
terrestrial ecosystems combined, which generate 100 billion tons of carbon
annually. Source: "global warming, the worst
case" http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/1992/j92/j92.leggett.html
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Criminal
trade in banned ozone-depleting chemicals is increasing, which perpetuaties
the ozone problem, see for example: http://www.salvonet.com/eia/cgi/news/news.cgi?a=170&t=template.htm.
In addition, metyl bromide, a very potent ozone destroyer has been widely
used in agriculture. The implementation of the international agreement to
stop its usage is being delayed in a way that it may further aggravate the
ozone problem, see Peter Saunders, "Methyl Bromide Ban",
Warming of the oceans
leads to increased green house gasses
In
addition, warming of the oceans seems also to contribute to disappearance of
oceanic phytoplanktons. Whatever the cause, considerable decreases have
already been observed.
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"Plant
life [phytoplanktons]covering the surface of the world's oceans, a vital
resource that helps absorb the worst of the "greenhouse gases"
involved in global warming, is disappearing at a dangerous rate, scientists
have discovered. Satellites and seagoing ships have confirmed the
diminishing productivity of the microscopic plants.… |
Permafrost thawing will aggravate
global warming
Huge
amounts of greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide and methane) are bound in the
immense permafrost regions in
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"About
14% of the carbon stored in the world's soils is estimated to be in the Dr
Svein Tveitdal, managing director of a UNEP information and monitoring
centre in Source: " |
There are
numerous observations of ongoing thawing in the
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Thawing
permafrost in the |
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Addition at Thawing subarctic
permafrost increases greenhouse gas A considerable increase of the
release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas was recently reported in the
Swedish permafrost. Methane
is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas. The scientists warn that
methane release from the large subpolar permafrost areas could accelerate
global warming. Excerpt:
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Addition at Rapid
arctic thaw portends warming
"There is
dramatic climate change happening in the Arctic right now ... about 2 to 3
times the pace of the whole globe," said Robert Corell, chairman
of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, an 1,800-page report to be handed
to ministers in Iceland in November. [This] “ may be a
portent of wider, catastrophic changes” Corell said. The melting is
destabilizing buildings on permafrost and threatening an oil pipeline laid
across Alaska. "I think (climate change) can be stopped but
we will need an aggressive response," Corell said. Global climate
change may bring everything from disastrous floods or droughts to a rise in
global sea levels that could swamp low-lying Pacific islands. "The (ACIA) report underlines how critical it
is that we take action as soon as possible, first under Kyoto, to reduce emissions and invest
in renewable energy," said Samantha Smith, director of the Arctic
Program at the World Wide Fund for Nature. Source: CNN Science&Space, 26 May 2004, http://edition.cnn.com/2004/TECH/science/05/25/global.heat.reut/index.html Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) website: http://www.acia.uaf.edu/ |
Oceanic changes observed
that may aggravate the situation
In
addition, different observations indicate that the so called "Thermohaline
Circulation" in the oceans is slowing down. This circulation has an
important stabilizing effect on world climate and it decreases the
temperature difference between polar and tropical regions. It is transporting
warm water out of the tropical zone, thereby warming the temperate regions.
Other parts of it bring cooler water to the tropics. Reduced thermohaline
circulation leads to hotter equotarial zones which leads to an important
increase of water evaporation. Water wapor is an efficient greenhouse gas. So
this would further increase equatiorial heating. At the same time the polar
and subpolar zones would be colder, perhaps much colder, including central
and northern
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"Most,
but not all models show a reduction in the strength of the THC with
increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, and if warming is strong
enough and sustained long enough, a complete collapse cannot be excluded. "Source: "Abrupt Climate Change
Happening global warming & then the Big Freeze" http://www.i-sis.org.uk/LOG3.php
and "Abrupt Climate Change Happening" http://www.i-sis.org.uk/LOG2.php |
In Dec
2003, a report was released from the largest oceanographic institute in the
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"Tropical
ocean waters have become
dramatically saltier over the past 40 years, while oceans closer to Earth's
poles have become fresher, scientists reported today in the journal
Nature."[Decreased salinity of the Polar ocean waters slows down the
mechanism that drives the thermohaline circulation and can bring it to a
stop]" Source: "New Study Reports
Large-scale Salinity Changes in the Oceans". Press release |
A vicious
circle
The
ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gasses causes increasing global warming.
This causes a more extensive destruction of ozone in the polar regions
because of accentuated stratospheric cooling. An increase of ozone
destruction increases the UV-radiation that, combined with higher ocean
temperature, causes a reduction of the gigantic carbon dioxide trapping
mechanism of the oceanic phytoplankton biomass. This accentuates the warming
process. When the warming has reached a certain level, it will release huge
amounts of greenhouse gasses trapped in the permafrost. This will enhance the
global warming, and the polar destruction of ozone, and so on. The observed
decrease of the thermohaline circulation further aggravates the situation.
This is a
global self-reinforcing vicious circle accelerating the global warming:
Click on
the picture to expand
Already
the present rate of warming can destabilize the world climate and may
precipitate drastic climatic changes any time, according to US National
Academy of Science. Their warning is based on historical data on warming
rates from former warming periods. The described vicious circle is
likely to accelerate this rate, perhaps considerably, and will thereby
increase the risk for an abrupt climatic change even more.
You may
have found sites questioning that global warming is man-made, yes even some
argue that it does not exist. They are mainly an expression of the powerful
hydrocarbon producer propaganda with the purpose to prevent a reduced use of
such energy sources. For more, see "Look out for junk science" at http://www.psrast.org/glecjunksci.htm
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Pentagon issues severe warning about abrupt
climate change A
recent message from Pentagon, published in Fortune Magazine a couple of
weeks after this article was published, likewise warns that global
climate can deteriorate rapidly and threaten the security of
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Global warming is definitely here now and it
is a major cause of the mass extinction of species discussed below.
Massive extinction of
species aggravates the environmental crisis
The world
environmental situation is likely to be further aggravated by the
increasingly rapid, large scale global extinction of species. It occurred in
the 20th century at a rate that was a thousand times higher than the average
rate during the preceding 65 million years. This is likely to destabilize
various ecosystems including agricultural systems.
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"By the second half of the
21st century, between one-third and two-thirds of all plant and animal
species, most in the tropics, will be lost. "In each of the prior mass
extinctions, somewhere between one-fourth and one-half of all species died
out over the course of a few million years - half a heartbeat in geologic
times. Source: "Scientists warn of mass
extinction", Environmental News Network, |
In a slow
extinction, various balancing mechanisms can develop. Nobody knows what will
be the result of this extremely rapid extinction rate as it is unprecedented
in the history of this planet. What is known, for sure, is that the world
ecological system has been kept in balance through a very complex and multi-facetted
interaction between a huge number of species. This rapid extinction is
therefore likely to precitate collapses of ecolosystems at a global scale.
This is predcited to create large-scale agricultural problems, threatening
food supplies to hundreds of millions of people. This ecological prediction
does not take into consideration the effects of global warming which will
further aggravate the situation.
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"There
is virtual unanimity among scientists that we have entered a period of mass
extinction not seen since the age of the dinosaurs, an emerging global
crisis that could have disastrous effects on our future food supplies, our
search for new medicines, and on the water we drink and the air we
breathe." |
Industrialized
fishing has contributed importantly to mass extinction due to repeatedly
failed attempts at limiting the fishing.
A new
global study concludes that 90 percent of all large fishes have disappeared
from the world's oceans in the past half century, the devastating result of
industrial fishing. The study, which took 10 years to complete and was
published in the international journal Nature, paints a grim picture of the
Earth's current populations of such species as sharks, swordfish, tuna and
marlin.
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"The
changes that will occur due to the decline of these species are hard to
predict and difficult to understand. However, they will occur on a global
scale, and I think this is the real reason for concern." Source: "Study: Only 10 percent of
big ocean fish remain" http://edition.cnn.com/2003/TECH/science/05/14/coolsc.disappearingfish/
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The loss
of predatory fishes is likely to cause multiple complex imbalances in marine
ecology.
Another
cause for extensive fish extinction is the destruction of coral reefs.
This is caused by a combination of causes, including warming of oceans,
damage from fishing tools and a harmful infection of coral organisms promoted
by ocean pollution. It will take hundreds of thousands of years to
restore what is now being destroyed in a few decades.
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"More
than a quarter of the world's coral reefs have been destroyed by pollution
and global warming, experts said today, warning that unless urgent measures
are taken, most of the remaining reefs could be dead in 20 years." Source: "Coral reefs will be gone
in 20 years, scientists say", Associated Press, oct 2000. http://www.enn.com/news/wire-stories/2000/10/10232000/ap_coral_39494.asp
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British
scientists have issued a clarion warning call, finding the mass extinction
situation alarming:
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"The living world is disappearing before our
eyes".
"Around
one in 10 of all the world's bird species and a quarter of its mammals are
officially listed as threatened with extinction, while up to two-thirds of
other animal species are also endangered. These losses have accelerated
over the last 200 years as a direct and indirect consequence of the growth
in human populations, wasteful use of natural resources and associated
changes to the environment."
Source: "Wake-up call on
extinction wave" BBC News Online |
According
to the most comprehensive study done so far in this field, over a million
species will be lost in the coming 50 years. The most important cause was
found to be climate change. Excerpt:
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"Dismayed
by their results, the researchers called for "rapid implementation of
technologies" to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and warned that
the scale of extinctions could climb much higher because of mutually
reinforcing interactions between climate change and habitat destruction
caused by agriculture, invasive species and other factors." Source: |
This
study used the predictions of UN that world average temperatures will slowly
rise 2.5 to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. However, as pointed out by the
US National Academy of Science, a much more rapid temperature change may
occur. This would yield a considerably worse outcome than the predicted one
million species loss (24 % of all species). In addition, as explained above,
synergistic mechanisms may enhance the temperature level, which would
aggravate the situation.
NOTE: The above presentation
encompasses only the most important and burning global environmental
problems. There are several additional ones, especially in the field of
chemical pollution that contribute to harm the environment or upset the
ecological balance. The industry has persistently and most irresponsibly
resisted attempts at controlling or limiting the release of new chemicals
into environment without proper testing of their environmental consequences.
Sudden collapse but very
slow recovery
The
French Mathematician René Thom has developed a mathematic theorem that
describes how sudden destabilization can occur in complex systems of many
interdependent parts, like biological and ecological systems. It formulates,
in mathematical terms, the age-old experience that such self-stabilizing
systems can uphold balance even under considerable strain. But when the
strain reaches a critical level, they rapidly collapse and then it takes very
long time to restore them. This was also pointed out in a recent paper in
Nature:
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"Models
have predicted this, but only in recent years has enough evidence
accumulated to tell us that resilience of many important ecosystems has
become undermined to the point that even the slightest disturbance can make
them collapse." Source: "Gradual change can push
ecosystems into collapse", http://www.enn.com/news/enn-stories/2001/10/10122001/s_45241.asp |
All
biological systems function in this way. Their mutually interdependent parts
support and reinforce the balance of the whole. Biological systems are able
to uphold balance even under considerable strain, but when the tolerance
limit is reached they disintegrate dramatically. The human body is such a
system. You may have experienced how you can go on for quite long time, even
years with exertion or mismanagement of health until suddenly, when you have
gone too far, there is a collapse of the "ecological balance" in
the body, manifesting as a disease, sometimes within hours. Full recovery is
always much slower, taking weeks or months. For the global ecology, it may
take hundreds or thousands of years to recover.
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"A
gradual awareness is building in the scientific community that stressed
ecosystems, given the right nudge, are capable of slipping rapidly from a
seemingly steady state to something entirely different, said coauthor
Stephen Carpenter, a limnologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and
immediate past president of the Ecological Society of America." Source: "Gradual change can push
ecosystems into collapse" Environmental News Network |
Effective measures can
decrease global warming and other problems
The
analysis by UNEP and other expert shows that globally coordinated strict measures
could slow down the global warming - species extinction - ecosystem
destabilization process. The World Watch Institute writes:
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"Most
encouraging, the world is sitting on the cusp of … successes that could usher
in a sustainable human civilization. The use of clean, renewable energy
technologies, like wind turbines and photovoltaics for example, is growing
at over 25 percent per year, and they are increasingly competitive with
fossil fuels. Organic farming is the fastest-growing sector of the world
agricultural economy, with the potential to rejuvenate rural communities
from the Source: State of the World 2003 from
World Watch Institute. http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/sow/2003/
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But this
requires immediate, very effective cooperation. If the system goes out of
balances in a catastrophic manner, no feasible measures will be sufficient to
restore the balance rapidly. It will take hundreds or, more likely. thousands
of years according to scientific experts. The chief scientist of the British
Government, Sir David King, recently called for immediate action:
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"In
my view, climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing
today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism."… Source: "Global warming 'biggest
threat'", BBC News |
Addition 17 June 2004 Shell boss 'fears for the planet' The head of one of the world's biggest
oil giants has said unless carbon dioxide emissions are dealt with he sees
"very little hope for the world". In a frank interview, Ron Oxburgh told the Guardian
newspaper that climate change makes him "very worried for the
planet". Source: “Shell boss 'fears for the
planet'”. BBC News 17 June 2004. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/3814607.stm |
The world community has
repeatedly failed to establish cooperation
For example,
one hundred eighty-two nations are now parties to the Convention on
Biological Diversity with the purpose of preventing the accelerating mass
extinction. But there is wide agreement that the treaty has had virtually no
impact on continuing mass extinction. It is more like a political statement
than a plan of action. Many developing countries in tropical areas, where the
most species of plant and animal can be found, wanted nothing in the treaty
that could limit their freedom to exploit natural resources.
Similar
tragic failures to unite in effective and responsible actions have repeatedly
occurred in spite of very serious warnings from the United Nations, saying
for example "Our present course is unsustainable - postponing action is
no longer an option" 2 and the UN Population
Report 2001 likewise warning for a catastrophic global crisis, the world
being "at the edge of a precipe" 3.
In spite of these very stern warnings, UN World Summit for Sustainable
Development (WSSD) in Sept 2002 in
Commentators found that narrow-minded national self-interest, greed and
cynical disregard of the already ongoing severe suffering of hundreds of
millions of people contributed to the failure of this conference 4
5 6.
Conclusion
Because
of lacking interdisciplinary cooperation, most scientists have long had a
fragmented understanding of the world environmental situation, ignoring
synergy effects of the kind mentioned above. Some have been long denying the
obvious. Only few have had the scope of insight to realize that a sudden
climatic and ecological collapse may occur. Only lately have increasing
numbers of scientists begun to realize the acute seriousness of the
situation. Only recently has the possibility of sudden drastic changes been
recognized. Leading scientists are now emphasizing that it is dangerous to
wait.
Nothing
of the above is speculation. We have been careful to include only
observations and conclusions by established experts and institutions.
A new approach is
required to solve the situation
Through
close cooperation between all nations, including immediate very strict and
firm restrictions of all known aggravating factors it is possible prevent
serious deterioration. The failure of world leaders to cooperate effectively
in spite of stern warnings, based on abundant evidence, demonstrates beyond
any doubt that a solution cannot be achieved by conventional means. Yet it is
obvious that we an effective way has to be applied very rapidly.
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"If
we are going to reverse biodiversity loss, dampen the effects of global
warming, and eliminate the scourge of persistent poverty, we need to
reinvent ourselves -as individuals, as societies, as corporations,
and as governments." Source: State of the World 2003 from
World Watch Institute. http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/sow/2003/
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We are
happy to inform that a scientifically confirmed and effective solution for
"reinventing" mankind exists and is becoming implemented during 2006, see http://www.psrast.org/globecolcrsol.htm
Jaan
Suurküla, M.D.,
Chairman of Physicians and Scientists for Responsible Application of Science
and Technology (PSRAST),
http://www.psrast.org/
Footnotes
1. To facilitate for the layman,We
are referring only to easy-read, brief non-technical sources. This is because
we think it is most important for everybody to understand the seriousness of
this impending catastrophe.
2. Global Environment Outlook 2000
(GEO-2000) of United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) - the most
authoritative assessment ever of the environmental crisis facing humanity.
URL (next page): http://www.unep.org/geo2000/pressrel/index.htm
3.
Jeremy Lovell.
"Earth on edge of a precipice - UN report". Reuters News Service.
4. Akwe Amosu. WSSD in Johannesburg
Ends on Uncertain Note
Quote: "UN special envoy to the summit, Jan Pronk, told the BBC that the
meeting had come "close to collapse" and implied that delegates had
only managed to maintain the status quo, rather than advancing the summit's
real objectives."
5.
BBC News,
"Pressure groups condemn summit"
6. World Development Movement
comment on WSSD: "The lack of action is especially cynical when coupled
with grandiose statements about the crisis faced by the world and the need
for urgency and political will." http://www.wdm.org.uk/cambriefs/wssd_wrap_up.pdf
Physicians and Scientists for Responsible Application of Science and
Technology (PSRAST)