World overpopulation prognoses may be wrong

But there are great uncertainities here because the nativity figures have been steadily decreasing. In addition, a number of factors may contribute significantly to decrease the growth rate:

1. The rapid spread of AIDS, with a large proportion of African children infected and a rapid increase in some Asian countries may alter the population growth prognosis (see AIDS in Africa in figures).

2. In addition to AIDS, there is an increase in tuberculosis (TBC), which appears as a complication to reduced immunity caussed by Aids, and may affect many people not infected by Aids. This is problematic as increasing instances of antibiotic resistant TBC is being reported.

3. Also antibiotic resistance in several other dangerous bacteria, including among other Bubonic Plaugue (Pasteurella Pestis) and Pneumococcal Pneumonia (both may be lethal untreated) has been steadily increasing and some instances of totally antibiotic resistant lethal infections have appeared. Experts fear large scale epidemics, in densely populated areas especially when aggravated by malnutrition.

4. Furthermore, it has been predicted that the unexpectedly rapid global warming will cause large scale extintion of corals as these are very sensitive to increased water temperature. As corals are of great importance for many food fishes, their death may cause dramatic decreases of protein availability to those hundreds of millions of coastal people all over the world who depend on fish. Ensuing protein malnutrition might cause death to very large numbers of people. For more,see Turning up the Heat: How Global Warming Threatens Life in the Sea by World Wildlife Fund and The Worldwatch Report: Coral death -- Disaster in the making.

5. Also, the growing ozone hole, causing increased penetration of ultraviolet radiation is feared to result in extensive fish death as the radiation penetrates into the water. Some fish, for example in some Northern Canadian lakes have already died in large numbers with symptoms indicating ultraviolet radiation damage. In addition, plankton are sensitive to ultraviolet radiation. They are a vital food source to several fish species that may become extinct if plankton is damaged. Because of the complex interdependency of different organisms in the sea, serious indirect consequences cannot be ruled out. The result might a/o be large scale decrease of fish availability. For more, see "Environmental effects of ozone depletion" of United Nations Environment Programme.

This is an incomplete list of potential factors that may negatively affect the world population growth. For a good overview, see "Development, global change, and the epidemiological environment" by Gretchen C. Daily at University of California Berkeley, California and Paul R. Ehrlich at Stanford University.Their conclusion is:

The above quoted report was written in 1995. Unfortunately, since then, no significant progress has been ahcieved in the necessary steps listed in the report. Rather, the negative trends have continued to increase the enumerated risks. The recent AIDS conference in Africa is but one of several examples where, in spite of overwhelming evidence calling for immmediate and powerful action, governmental measures are highly inadequate.

Conclusion

It is very difficult presently to make future population prognoses. Already several countries, also in the Third World, have recently had considerable and unexpected decreases of nativity. The reason for this is yet unknown and it is impossible to judge if it is a long term trend or a temporary phenomenon. In addition, several factors may contribute to large scale death of people, especially in the Third World. In any case it is not justified any more to confidently assume that the formerly prognosticated "population explosion" will indeed occur.

Comment

I cannot help comment that most of these factors threating mankind and the global ecology are the consequence of exploitation of technologies before their environmental consequences are known. Even the possibility has been discussed that AIDS arose from transmission of an ape AIDS-related virus to humans in an early mass-vaccintation project in Africa using a vaccine extracted from ape blood (however this theory, proposed by a distinguished scientist, is controversial and needs further investigation before it can be confirmed).

A great step forward seemed to be made at the Rio Declaration from the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, when most countries signed an agreement that no new technological products that may be hazardous to the environment may be released without careful investigation of their consequences, see "The Precautionary approach to safety of new products". However, the implementation of this principle has regrettably been resisted by powerful industrial lobbies. The consequence of such actions has been serious delays and weakening of global measures aimed at reducing the percieved threats. Thereby, the health or even life of hundreds of millions if not billions may unnecessarily be threatened.

An other problematic factor is the risk for scientists in applied sciences, for different reasons including the fact that much applied research is now financed by the industry, may tend to be biased in favor of the technologies they have been developing, see Dysfunctional science - Towards a "pseudoscientfic world order"? It is unacceptable that the same scientists are used as advisors to government and regulatory bodies in safety assessment questions as has been the case in Genetic Engineering. For more, see "The Fallibility of Scientific Authorities".

It is such considerations that prompted us to create PSRAST, with the intention to establish and independent interdisciplinary body of scientists for evaluating the safety of new technologies, see further "About us".   

Jaan Suurkula M.D.